Campos dos Goytacazes
How votes changed between presidential rounds in 2022 and 2026, and what the other first-round races reveal about local alliances.
What changed in 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro won both rounds in Campos. Between rounds, Lula gained 24,822 votes and Flávio lost 1,389. In 2022, both finalists gained votes and Jair Bolsonaro widened his lead.
Rio de Janeiro state context. Lula's share of votes for the two finalists rose in all 92 municipalities in 2026. Campos recorded the largest increase (+5.94 percentage points), followed by São João da Barra (+5.88 percentage points). Statewide, the increase was 4.25 percentage points.
Presidential election · Two rounds, two elections
| Indicator | 2022 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Lula | +6,556 | +24,822 |
| Bolsonaro (Jair in 2022, Flávio in 2026) | +12,618 | −1,389 |
| Bolsonaro's lead in votes | +6,062 | −26,211 |
| Turnout | −4,582 | −3,898 |
| Blank and invalid votes | −2,246 | −7,131 |
| Valid votes | −2,336 | +3,233 |
| Lula's share of votes for the two finalists | 37.07% → 36.86% (−0.20 pp) | 36.16% → 42.09% (+5.94 pp) |
| Indicator | First round | Second round | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula (PT) | 93,871 (34.16%) | 100,427 (36.86%) | +6,556 |
| Jair Bolsonaro (PL) | 159,381 (58.01%) | 171,999 (63.14%) | +12,618 |
| Other candidates | 21,510 (7.83%) | 0 (0.00%) | −21,510 |
| Valid votes | 274,762 (95.13%) | 272,426 (95.84%) | −2,336 |
| Blank votes | 5,712 (1.98%) | 3,852 (1.36%) | −1,860 |
| Invalid votes | 8,369 (2.90%) | 7,983 (2.81%) | −386 |
| Turnout | 288,843 (78.06%) | 284,261 (76.82%) | −4,582 |
| Abstention | 81,197 (21.94%) | 85,777 (23.18%) | +4,580 |
| Eligible voters | 370,040 | 370,038 | −2 |
| Indicator | First round | Second round | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula (PT) | 91,105 (33.47%) | 115,927 (42.09%) | +24,822 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) | 160,859 (59.10%) | 159,470 (57.91%) | −1,389 |
| Other candidates | 20,200 (7.42%) | 0 (0.00%) | −20,200 |
| Valid votes | 272,164 (93.70%) | 275,397 (96.10%) | +3,233 |
| Blank votes | 7,954 (2.74%) | 4,035 (1.41%) | −3,919 |
| Invalid votes | 10,340 (3.56%) | 7,128 (2.49%) | −3,212 |
| Turnout | 290,458 (78.40%) | 286,560 (77.35%) | −3,898 |
| Abstention | 80,008 (21.60%) | 83,903 (22.65%) | +3,895 |
| Eligible voters | 370,466 | 370,463 | −3 |
Candidate shares use valid votes. The rates for valid, blank and invalid votes use turnout. Turnout and abstention rates use eligible voters in each round. Percentage-point differences were calculated before rounding.
In 2022, a drop of 2,246 blank and invalid votes offset part of the fall in turnout of 4,582 voters, leaving 2,336 fewer valid votes. In 2026, the reduction of 7,131 blank and invalid votes exceeded the turnout drop of 3,898, and valid votes rose by 3,233. Relative to the first-round electorate, Campos recorded the largest combined drop in blank and invalid votes in Rio de Janeiro state in 2026, at 19.25 per thousand eligible voters.
First-round voting by political camp
The camps group candidates with documented party or campaign ties. For federal and state deputies, the comparison uses the same core party groupings in both years and adds votes for individual candidates and party lists. The other valid votes column includes parties and candidates outside these groupings.
| Office | Bolsonaro camp | Lula camp | Other valid votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | Jair Bolsonaro 159,381 (58.01%) | Lula 93,871 (34.16%) | 21,510 (7.83%) |
| Governor | Cláudio Castro 192,042 (77.61%) | Marcelo Freixo 40,383 (16.32%) | 15,032 (6.07%) |
| Senator | Clarissa Garotinho and Romário 160,168 (75.03%) | Alessandro Molon and André Ceciliano 48,009 (22.49%) | 5,307 (2.49%) |
| Federal deputy | PL 36,012 (14.08%) | PT, PCdoB, PV, PSOL and Rede 33,885 (13.24%) | 185,947 (72.68%) |
| State deputy | PL 29,273 (12.75%) | PT, PCdoB, PV, PSOL and Rede 34,314 (14.95%) | 165,929 (72.30%) |
| Office | Bolsonaro camp | Lula camp | Other valid votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | Flávio Bolsonaro 160,859 (59.10%) | Lula 91,105 (33.47%) | 20,200 (7.42%) |
| Governor | Douglas Ruas 118,137 (58.78%) | Eduardo Paes and William Siri 77,354 (38.49%) | 5,494 (2.73%) |
| Senator | Carlos Portinho and Carlos Jordy 248,690 (55.49%) | Benedita da Silva, Pedro Paulo and Mônica Benício 150,042 (33.48%) | 49,431 (11.03%) |
| Federal deputy | PL 95,341 (36.29%) | PT, PCdoB, PV, PSOL and Rede 39,344 (14.98%) | 128,019 (48.73%) |
| State deputy | PL 47,544 (18.35%) | PT, PCdoB, PV, PSOL and Rede 47,614 (18.37%) | 163,983 (63.28%) |
- Senate. Each voter could cast one vote for this office in 2022 and two in 2026. Percentages are based on valid Senate votes.
- Revised tabulation. The 27,407 votes cast in the municipality for Rodrigo Bacellar (PL) for state deputy in 2022 were excluded from the valid total after revised tabulation. In 2026, 43,421 votes recorded for Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) were excluded from the valid total for governor.
- Local alliances. Caio Vianna backed Lula in 2022 and Flávio in 2026. Wladimir Garotinho, Delegada Madeleine and Caio, the three federal deputy candidates with the most votes in 2026, backed Flávio. Among state deputy candidates, Bruno Dauaire backed Flávio, while Thiago Virgílio and Carla Machado backed Lula.
A public endorsement by a political figure helps explain the campaign. The aggregate results leave open how individual voters voted for president in the two rounds.
Political context
In 2026, first-round candidates Cury, Caiado, Zema and Clariana backed Flávio after receiving a combined 14,695 votes in Campos. In 2022, Tebet and Ciro backed Lula after receiving 18,637 votes between them. In both elections, the other finalist gained more votes in the municipality. Endorsements help map the campaigns, and their electoral reach remains to be measured.
Lula's local campaign mobilised political figures from different parties. Its coordinators reported neighbourhood walks, student events and conversations with Flávio voters. These accounts come from the campaign. The contribution of those activities to the municipal result remains a hypothesis.
Testing the technical hypothesis
One hypothesis attributes Lula's gain to the sum of all votes for first-round candidates who were eliminated and the reduction in blank and invalid votes. Applied literally to the Campos totals, the rule would predict 27,331 additional votes (20,200 + 7,131), compared with 24,822 observed. The prediction exceeds the observed gain by 2,509. By the accounting identity, the difference equals the change in turnout minus the change in votes for Flávio.
The municipal test evaluates this literal rule. Investigating a possible software function would require a testable prediction for each polling section, reconciliation of polling station returns and records, and a controlled test of the relevant system version where access is authorised. This municipal study did not perform any of those section-level steps.
Sources and method
Presidential results were calculated from the Rio de Janeiro dataset, which combines the TSE's detailed count and votes-by-candidate files. Results for other offices use official files for votes by candidate and party, with valid totals calculated separately for each office. Endorsements come from the sources below.
- TSE · Open data for the 2022 elections and TSE · Open data for the 2026 elections.
- TRE-RJ · Revised tabulation for state deputy in 2022 and TSE · Revised tabulation for governor in 2026.
- CNN Brasil · Castro and Freixo in 2022, O Dia · Clarissa and Romário and UOL · Molon and Lula.
- Agenda do Poder · Caio Vianna in 2022, Folha1 · Local endorsements in 2022, Canal do Marcelo Sá · Local endorsements in 2026 and Folha1 · Statements in the 2026 second round.
- CNN Brasil · Eduardo Paes's ticket and Agência Brasil · PSOL–Rede Federation endorsement in 2026.
- Agência Brasil · Tebet's endorsement, UOL · Endorsements from the PDT and Ciro and CNN Brasil · Presidential endorsements in 2026.
- Manchete RJ · Accounts from the local campaign and TSE · Audit procedures.