Macapá
How the presidential race changed between rounds in 2022 and 2026 in the capital of Amapá, and what local alliances tell us about those elections.
What changed in 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round by 10,199 votes. Lula won the second round by 4,886. In 2022, Jair Bolsonaro led the first round and widened his lead in the second, from 12,604 to 22,451 votes.
Statewide context. Lula's share of votes for the two finalists rose by 2.85 percentage points across Amapá in 2026. In Macapá, it rose from 47.86% to 50.99%. In 2022, it fell from 47.07% to 45.08% in Macapá.
Presidential election · Two rounds, two elections
| Indicator | 2022 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Lula | +1,681 | +11,300 |
| Bolsonaro (Jair in 2022, Flávio in 2026) | +11,528 | −3,785 |
| Change in Bolsonaro's margin over Lula | +9,847 | −15,085 |
| Turnout | −19,092 | −19,220 |
| Blank and invalid votes | +202 | −1,574 |
| Valid votes | −19,294 | −17,646 |
| Lula's share of votes for the two finalists | 47.07% → 45.08% (−1.99 pp) | 47.86% → 50.99% (+3.13 pp) |
| Indicator | First round | Second round | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula (PT) | 101,129 (40.88%) | 102,810 (45.08%) | +1,681 |
| Jair Bolsonaro (PL) | 113,733 (45.98%) | 125,261 (54.92%) | +11,528 |
| Other candidates | 32,503 (13.14%) | 0 (0.00%) | −32,503 |
| Valid votes | 247,365 (97.42%) | 228,071 (97.12%) | −19,294 |
| Blank votes | 2,151 (0.85%) | 2,705 (1.15%) | +554 |
| Invalid votes | 4,413 (1.74%) | 4,061 (1.73%) | −352 |
| Turnout | 253,929 (81.47%) | 234,837 (75.36%) | −19,092 |
| Abstention | 57,749 (18.53%) | 76,793 (24.64%) | +19,044 |
| Eligible voters | 311,678 | 311,630 | −48 |
| Indicator | First round | Second round | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula (PT) | 114,179 (43.30%) | 125,479 (50.99%) | +11,300 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) | 124,378 (47.16%) | 120,593 (49.01%) | −3,785 |
| Other candidates | 25,161 (9.54%) | 0 (0.00%) | −25,161 |
| Valid votes | 263,718 (97.48%) | 246,072 (97.91%) | −17,646 |
| Blank votes | 2,792 (1.03%) | 2,133 (0.85%) | −659 |
| Invalid votes | 4,024 (1.49%) | 3,109 (1.24%) | −915 |
| Turnout | 270,534 (84.12%) | 251,314 (78.16%) | −19,220 |
| Abstention | 51,063 (15.88%) | 70,206 (21.84%) | +19,143 |
| Eligible voters | 321,597 | 321,520 | −77 |
Candidate shares use valid votes. The rates for valid, blank and invalid votes use turnout. Turnout and abstention rates use eligible voters in each round. Percentage-point differences were calculated before rounding.
Turnout fell by similar amounts in both elections, with 19,092 fewer voters in 2022 and 19,220 fewer in 2026. Blank and invalid votes combined rose by 202 in 2022 and fell by 1,574 in 2026. Valid votes fell in both elections, by 19,294 and 17,646 respectively. The main difference in 2026 was how votes were divided between the finalists.
First-round voting by political camp
The categories reflect campaign and party ties. For federal and state deputies, the comparison groups PL on one side and PT, PCdoB, PV, PSOL and Rede on the other, adding votes for individual candidates and party lists. The remaining category includes candidates from other parties and alliances that span the two camps.
| Office | Bolsonaro camp | Lula camp | Other or unassigned |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | 113,733 (45.98%) | 101,129 (40.88%) | 32,503 (13.14%) |
| Governor | — | — | 236,603 (100.00%) |
| Senator | — | Capi · 15,087 (6.64%) | 212,210 (93.36%) |
| Federal deputy | PL · 16,523 (7.22%) | PT, PCdoB, PV, PSOL and Rede · 37,474 (16.38%) | 174,844 (76.40%) |
| State deputy | PL · 14,918 (6.36%) | PT, PCdoB, PV, PSOL and Rede · 36,566 (15.60%) | 182,912 (78.04%) |
| Office | Bolsonaro camp | Lula camp | Other or unassigned |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | 124,378 (47.16%) | 114,179 (43.30%) | 25,161 (9.54%) |
| Governor | Dr. Furlan* · 168,110 (65.54%) | Clécio · 87,385 (34.07%) | 1,004 (0.39%) |
| Senator | Rayssa Furlan and Lucas Barreto · 286,434 (57.03%) | Randolfe and Alliny Serrão* · 132,801 (26.44%) | 83,007 (16.53%) |
| Federal deputy | PL · 34,171 (13.19%) | PT, PCdoB, PV, PSOL and Rede · 38,675 (14.93%) | 186,140 (71.87%) |
| State deputy | PL · 20,161 (7.84%) | PT, PCdoB, PV, PSOL and Rede · 31,593 (12.28%) | 205,465 (79.88%) |
- 2022 governor's race. Clécio (Solidariedade) received 117,998 votes in Macapá, followed by Jaime Nunes (PSD) with 107,358. PL joined Clécio's coalition and PT backed him. The table places both candidates' votes in the group without an assigned presidential alignment.
- 2026 governor's race. Flávio backed Dr. Furlan and PL joined his coalition. Furlan, who received 168,110 votes in the capital, was reported to be neutral at the start of the presidential second round. The asterisk indicates the direction of that endorsement. Lula backed Clécio, who received 87,385 votes.
- Senate. In 2022, Rayssa Furlan (MDB) received 114,575 votes and Davi Alcolumbre (União) received 91,467. Both are unassigned to a presidential camp in this analysis. In 2026, Flávio announced his backing for Rayssa Furlan and Lucas Barreto. Alliny Serrão is included through her membership of the same state coalition as Randolfe, as indicated by an asterisk. Each voter could cast one Senate vote in 2022 and two in 2026.
- Deputies with the most votes. In 2022, Josenildo (PDT) led the federal deputy race with 11,599 votes and Delegado Inácio (PDT) led the state deputy race with 7,034. In 2026, Felipe Show (União) led the federal race with 24,079 and Rodolfo Vale (União) led the state race with 9,078.
Political context
In 2022, Tebet and Ciro received a combined 28,952 first-round votes in Macapá and backed Lula in the second round. Jair Bolsonaro gained more votes. In 2026, Cury, Caiado, Zema and Clariana received a combined 17,567 votes and backed Flávio. Lula was the one who gained votes. Alliances provide campaign context, while the aggregate results leave open how each voter voted in the two rounds.
In Macapá, Furlan's win for governor and Lula's second-round presidential win show that results for different offices can point in different directions. Analysis by polling section could test whether Lula's gain was concentrated where Flávio lost the most votes or where turnout fell, while leaving individual voting patterns undetermined.
Testing the technical hypothesis
The literal rule discussed in the Campos study predicts Lula's gain by adding all votes for first-round candidates who were eliminated to the reduction in blank and invalid votes. Applied to Macapá, it would predict 26,735 additional votes (25,161 + 1,574), compared with 11,300 observed. The difference is 15,435 votes.
This difference follows from the accounting identity that relates turnout and votes for Flávio to Lula's net gain. The municipal comparison tests the literal prediction. Investigating a software function would require section-level evidence and controlled tests, which fall outside the scope of this analysis.
Sources and method
The study combines TSE files for the detailed count and votes by candidate and party for municipality 06050. Shares for other offices use the corresponding valid vote totals. The statewide presidential comparison aggregates all 16 municipalities in Amapá before calculating shares. Campaign alignments are based on the sources listed below.
- TSE · Open data for the 2022 elections
- TSE · Open data for the 2026 elections
- CNN Brasil · The shift between rounds in Macapá
- Folha · Clécio's coalition in 2022
- UOL · Flávio's endorsement of Dr. Furlan
- Gazeta do Povo · Dr. Furlan's position at the start of the second round
- CNN Brasil · Lula's endorsement of Clécio in 2026
- CNN Brasil · Flávio's Senate endorsements
- Senado Notícias · Senate candidates in Amapá in 2026
- Agência Brasil · Tebet's endorsement of Lula
- UOL · Ciro and the PDT's endorsement of Lula
- CNN Brasil · Presidential endorsements in the 2026 second round